Bitcoin teeters at $88,000 – could this be the year it shatters a 14-year winning streak with its first red yearly candle post-halving? As traders watch intently, this might just be the moment that reshapes our understanding of crypto markets forever. But here's where it gets intriguing: while the weekend brought an eerie calm, bullish signals are flickering beneath the surface, hinting at potential fireworks in the new year.
Let's dive into the details. After hitting weekend peaks that carried into Sunday's weekly close, Bitcoin's price action has been locked in a near-motionless state around $88,000, according to data from TradingView. For beginners, this 'yearly candle' refers to how the price performs over an entire year on a candlestick chart – if it closes higher than it opened, it's a 'green' candle signaling gains; if lower, it's 'red' for losses. And with just days left in 2025, Bitcoin is staring down the possibility of its first red candle since the last halving event in 2020. A halving, by the way, is when the network cuts the supply of new bitcoins in half, often sparking rallies due to scarcity – think of it like a built-in mechanism to boost value every four years.
This calm weekend wasn't just boring; analysts spotted a three-day bullish divergence that's locking in place. For those new to this, a divergence happens when the price and an indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) move in opposite directions – bullish means the RSI is rising while price dips, suggesting underlying strength. Trader Jelle highlighted this on X, noting it's perched atop key support levels and mirroring past bottoms, posing the question: 'Time for history to repeat?'
But here's where it gets controversial: some argue this stagnation could persist until the new year, with capital only redeploying then to shift Bitcoin's trajectory. Indeed, Bitcoin is down about 6% for the year so far, which might etch a bearish milestone as the first post-halving yearly decline. Trader BitBull bets on seasonality – the pattern where institutional investors pour money into underperforming assets like Bitcoin in early January, potentially sparking a breakout toward $100,000. As he tweeted, 'Those who sold at a loss for tax harvesting will buyback BTC, and investors will allocate into underperforming assets in Jan 2026 as they always do. This could trigger a...' – teasing a rally fueled by these renewed interests.
Adding to the mix, analyst Aksel Kibar sees the low volatility as part of a natural cycle following the high-octane upsides of Q3. 'Volatility is cyclical,' he explained on X, meaning periods of wild swings are followed by lulls until a clear chart pattern emerges for traders to capitalize on. For example, imagine a rollercoaster: after thrilling peaks, it slows down before the next big drop – that's akin to waiting for Bitcoin's next move.
Now, this is the part most people miss: the yearly candle's color could signal a structural break from the famed four-year cycle, where Bitcoin tends to peak around halving years. If it closes red – something that hasn't happened in the third year of a bull market cycle in 14 years – it might challenge the idea that these cycles are predictable. Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, emphasized the importance of closes over mere wicks (those thin lines on candles showing intraday swings), and he's eyeing a potential retest of the year's opening price around $93,500. 'Keeping with the holiday spirit, I’m most interested in whether or not we see a red or green candle to close Q4 and the Year,' he wrote on Christmas Day, hinting at fresh macro insights from tools like Trend Precognition.
But let's stir the pot: is this red candle risk a temporary glitch, or does it mark the end of Bitcoin's cyclical magic? And could seasonality truly push prices to $100,000, or are we overlooking something bigger? Do you think the four-year cycle is outdated in today's evolving crypto landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments – agree, disagree, or add your own twist. We'd love to hear from you!
