A President's Threat of War Over Ocean Access Sparks Diplomatic Tensions in East Africa
By Eliud Kibii
November 17, 2025
In a move that has raised eyebrows across the region, Kenyan officials have responded with measured calm to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s recent provocative statements about potentially going to war to secure access to the Indian Ocean. But here's where it gets controversial: while Museveni claims the ocean ‘belongs to him,’ Kenya is doubling down on its commitment to regional cooperation and international law, setting the stage for a diplomatic showdown that could redefine East African relations.
During a quarterly media engagement, Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi, emphasized that facilitating access to the port of Mombasa for landlocked neighbors like Uganda is not just a legal obligation but a strategic interest for Kenya. ‘Kenya is a responsible member of the international community,’ Mudavadi stated. ‘It is in our best interest to ensure that landlocked countries can use our ports to boost trade and economic growth. After all, what good is a port if it doesn’t generate revenue for all?’
Mudavadi clarified that Kenya has never denied any landlocked nation access to its ports, a point that underscores the country’s adherence to international conventions, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This convention guarantees landlocked states like Uganda the right to access the sea, but it also respects the sovereignty of transit states like Kenya. And this is the part most people miss: while Uganda has the right to access the ocean, it doesn’t grant them sovereign territory on the coast—a distinction that’s crucial in understanding the legal and diplomatic nuances at play.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Museveni likely understands the legal boundaries governing natural resources. ‘President Museveni is well aware of our rights over our natural resources, just as we respect Uganda’s rights over theirs,’ Sing’oei remarked. However, Museveni’s fiery rhetoric—warning of future wars over ocean access—has sparked alarm, prompting Kenya’s diplomatic corps to reiterate their commitment to peaceful dialogue and regional cooperation.
Foreign policy analyst Gordon K’achola weighed in, explaining that international law does not grant landlocked states sovereign territory on coastal lands. ‘The legal framework primarily focuses on transit rights and negotiated access—ports, customs, and transport corridors,’ K’achola noted. ‘Courts have never compelled coastal states to cede sovereignty. A notable example is the International Court of Justice’s refusal to force Chile to negotiate sovereign access to the Pacific for Bolivia.’
K’achola warned that if Museveni’s demands extend to exclusive control over coastal bases, it could be seen as territorial encroachment, potentially triggering strong reactions from Kenya or Tanzania. ‘This could indeed lead to war, as Museveni suggested,’ K’achola added. ‘But a diplomatic approach could secure Uganda favorable access without resorting to threats.’
As tensions simmer, the situation raises a thought-provoking question: Can East African nations balance their sovereignty with the economic and strategic needs of their landlocked neighbors? Or is this the beginning of a deeper rift that could reshape regional alliances? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—this is a conversation that deserves your voice.
